Table 6 Determinants of social spending (%GDP) in 17 Latin American countries. Period 1990–2000 and 2001–2012. GMM Estimates
Variables | 1990–2000 | 2001–2012 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
Education | Health | Social Security | Housing and Other | Education | Health | Social Security | Housing and Other | |
Education (t − 1) | − 0.265*** (0.0439) | − 0.0965** (0.0484) | ||||||
Health (t− 1) | − 0.244*** (0.0414) | − 0.0957*** (0.0308) | ||||||
Social security (t − 1) | − 0.340*** (0.0589) | − 0.154*** (0.0298) | ||||||
Housing and other (t − 1) | − 0.119** (0.0508) | − 0.212*** (0.0287) | ||||||
Fiscal burden (t − 1) | 0.0711 (0.0685) | 0.292*** (0.0842) | 0.388* (0.227) | − 0.516* (0.286) | − 0.0685 (0.0965) | − 0.110 (0.0734) | − 0.00139 (0.0901) | 0.283 (0.190) |
Fiscal burden growth | 0.114 (0.0981) | 0.156 (0.103) | 0.441 (0.313) | − 1.377*** (0.441) | 0.0118 (0.180) | 0.144 (0.146) | 0.278* (0.176) | 0.278 (0.363) |
Per capita income (GDPpc) (logged) (t − 1) | 0.0460 (0.0411) | 0.0621 (0.0425) | 0.0337 (0.125) | − 0.0863 (0.177) | − 0.0297 (0.0754) | 0.0288 (0.0575) | 0.0238 (0.0682) | 0.245* (0.145) |
Per capita income growth | − 0.203 (0.335) | − 0.115 (0.361) | 0.443 (1.101) | 3.043** (1.542) | − 0.227 (0.428) | − 0.743** (0.350) | − 0.618 (0.422) | 1.736** (0.871) |
Trade (%GDP) (t− 1) | 0.0923*** (0.0240) | 0.0750*** (0.0269) | − 0.0454 (0.0717) | − 0.190* (0.102) | − 0.0713 (0.0514) | − 0.0120 (0.0409) | − 0.152*** (0.0546) | 0.182* (0.100) |
Trade growth | − 0.214** (0.0843) | 0.102 (0.0935) | − 0.0569 (0.273) | − 0.720* (0.393) | − 0.321* (0.177) | 0.106 (0.146) | − 0.223 (0.175) | − 0.493 (0.364) |
Foreign direct investment flows (%GNI) (t− 1) | 0.0442** (0.0204) | 0.00370 (0.0215) | 0.0298 (0.0637) | − 0.0386 (0.0949) | 0.0224 (0.0277) | 0.0222 (0.0187) | 0.0118 (0.0220) | − 0.0304 (0.0462) |
Foreign Direct Investment growth | 0.0235* (0.0149) | 0.0110 (0.0160) | 0.0155 (0.0477) | 0.105 (0.0692) | 0.0178 (0.0232) | − 0.00562 (0.0178) | − 0.0193 (0.0213) | 0.135*** (0.0443) |
External debt (%GNI) (t− 1) | − 0.0977** (0.0464) | − 0.0855* (0.0491) | − 0.205 (0.145) | − 0.166 (0.206) | 0.0696 (0.0712) | 0.00660 (0.0442) | 0.0270 (0.0538) | − 0.00113 (0.110) |
External debt growth | − 0.0845 (0.0665) | − 0.213*** (0.0719) | − 0.0489 (0.216) | 0.153 (0.301) | 0.000230 (0.112) | − 0.109 (0.0877) | 0.0816 (0.107) | 0.323 (0.219) |
Interest payments on debt (t − 1) | − 0.0228 (0.0272) | − 0.0582* (0.0309) | − 0.0895 (0.0911) | 0.233* (0.127) | 0.0278 (0.0360) | − 0.0232 (0.0285) | − 0.0111 (0.0333) | 0.101 (0.0721) |
Interest payments on debt growth | − 0.0490* (0.0283) | − 0.0743** (0.0301) | 0.131 (0.0918) | 0.0326 (0.129) | − 0.00533 (0.0420) | − 0.0153 (0.0341) | − 0.0847** (0.0412) | 0.0335 (0.0864) |
Unemployment (t− 1) | 0.00934 (0.0323) | 0.0372 (0.0335) | 0.147 (0.103) | − 0.0313 (0.143) | − 0.152** (0.0602) | − 0.0355 (0.0428) | − 0.0314 (0.0523) | − 0.0247 (0.107) |
Unemployment growth | − 0.0616 (0.0456) | − 0.114** (0.0505) | 0.184 (0.150) | − 0.0944 (0.215) | − 0.101 (0.0977) | 0.00849 (0.0773) | 0.128 (0.0929) | 0.252 (0.192) |
Population over 65 (t− 1) | − 0.237*** (0.0796) | − 0.0572 (0.0732) | 0.306 (0.219) | − 0.267 (0.317) | 0.0708 (0.130) | 0.0394 (0.102) | 0.149 (0.128) | − 0.457* (0.255) |
Population over 65 growth | 1.864 (2.682) | − 6.221** (2.889) | − 7.004 (9.232) | 2.479 (12.96) | 0.337 (1.828) | 0.0121 (1.609) | − 0.740 (1.906) | 2.840 (4.027) |
Democracy (t− 1) | 0.0488* (0.0262) | 0.0312 (0.0266) | 0.0460 (0.0792) | − 0.0344 (0.113) | − 0.103** (0.0515) | − 0.00736 (0.0388) | − 0.140*** (0.0458) | 0.0414 (0.0970) |
Democracy growth | − 0.0193 (0.0363) | − 0.109*** (0.0391) | − 0.172 (0.118) | 0.0364 (0.166) | − 0.0994 (0.0759) | − 0.0297 (0.0628) | 0.0949 (0.0763) | − 0.0914 (0.158) |
Right− wing party (t− 1) | − 0.0174 (0.0237) | − 0.0445* (0.0273) | − 0.0564 (0.0774) | − 0.00594 (0.125) | 0.0274 (0.0314) | 0.0445* (0.0265) | 0.0455 (0.0347) | − 0.0599 (0.0662) |
Right-wing party growth | − 0.0303 (0.0425) | − 0.0507 (0.0464) | 0.141 (0.139) | 0.261 (0.198) | 0.0265 (0.0757) | − 0.0340 (0.0615) | 0.0104 (0.0762) | − 0.103 (0.153) |
Constant | 0.0749 (0.361) | − 0.924** (0.431) | − 0.506 (1.212) | 3.806** (1.675) | 0.818 (0.815) | 0.172 (0.611) | 0.502 (0.747) | − 2.774* (1.515) |
Observations | 163 | 163 | 163 | 163 | 186 | 186 | 186 | 186 |
Number of countries | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
N | 163 | 163 | 163 | 163 | 186 | 186 | 186 | 186 |
ar1p | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ar2p | 0.501 | 0.194 | 0.798 | 0.870 | 0.330 | 0.166 | 0.411 | 0.733 |
Sarganp | 0.333 | 0.129 | 0.616 | 0.235 | 0.318 | 0.0889 | 0.199 | 0.00869 |
Difference in Sargan | 0.762 | 0.212 | 0.558 | 0.773 | 0.653 | 0.965 | 0.719 | 0.437 |