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Table 8 Unbiasedness: \(E_{t}[\Delta S_{i,t+k}]=\beta _{0}+\beta _{1}\Delta S_{t+k}+\beta _{2}\lambda (\frac{x'_{it}\beta }{\sigma })+\sum _{j}{\gamma _jD_{year}}+\alpha _i+\epsilon _{it}\)

From: Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey

Coefficient/test

k = 1 Month

k = 1 Year

First differences

Fixed effects

First differences

Fixed effects

\(\beta _{0}\)

0.00 (0.001)

−0.00*** (0.001)

−0.00 (0.003)

0.07*** (0.005)

\(\beta _{1}\)

0.30*** (0.011)

0.27*** (0.011)

0.26*** (0.022)

0.12*** (0.018)

\(\beta _{2}\)

0.00 (0.003)

0.00 (0.002)

0.00 (0.005)

0.00 (0.005)

\(t: \beta _{1}=1\)

3703*** (0.000)

4750*** (0.000)

1118*** (0.000)

2509*** (0.000)

\(Wald: \beta _{0}=0 \, \beta _{1}=1\)

1857*** (0.000)

2786*** (0.000)

564*** (0.000)

2053*** (0.000)

Observations

3611

4100

2869

3443

  1. Source: authors’ calculations. \(\beta _2\) corresponds to the inverse mills ratio, \(\lambda (\cdot )\), estimated from the attrition probit regression (see Table 3). All estimations were conducted with clustered standard errors, reported in parenthesis. P values are reported only for the t test and Wald test (last two rows). Coefficients for time dummies are not reported. The Hausman test, conducted for all regressions, rejects the null hypothesis in which the unobserved time-invariant component is uncorrelated with the model’s covariates
  2. ***, **, * correspond to significance levels of 1, 5 and 10 %, respectively